Modelling &
Simulation Unit

The Modelling & Simulation Unit applies cutting-edge mathematical and statistical methods to understand and predict the behaviour of infectious diseases in human populations. By developing compartmental models (SIR, SEIR, and their extensions), the unit provides scenario-based analyses that directly inform public health planning, resource allocation, and policy development.

Led by Dr. Arnaud Iradukunda, whose Oxford MSc focused specifically on modelling for global health, the unit has active projects on tuberculosis (including the impact of COVID-19 on TB dynamics and the potential of the M72/AS01E vaccine), malaria elimination strategy modelling, and broader epidemiological surveillance work.

Core Capabilities

• Compartmental modelling (SIR/SEIR/SEIRD) for infectious disease dynamics
• Scenario analysis and counterfactual modelling for intervention planning
• Real-time outbreak detection and epidemic curve analysis
• Drug resistance modelling for TB and antimicrobial resistance
• Epidemiological study design (cohort, cross-sectional, case-control)
• Global burden of disease analysis and Lancet GBD collaboration
• Spatial epidemiology and geographic information systems (GIS)

Active Research Areas

• COVID-19 impact on tuberculosis mortality and drug resistance in Burundi (Harvard University partnership, 2023–2025)
• Mathematical modelling for malaria control and elimination (2027 and 2030 targets)
• M72/AS01E vaccine impact on tuberculosis burden scenario analysis